The US market consensus believes the country has avoided recession, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes showing strong performance. However, yield curves remain deeply inverted, which traditionally ...

The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Expanding the analysis across the yield curve ...

It is no secret that the bond market is the most important in the world. The well-oiled market machine burns debt as a fuel. But when you look inside, you realize that it is intermingled with yield ...

North American yield curves are experiencing the steepest inversion of the last 3 decades, while European yield curves have flattened significantly in 2022. In the world of fixed income investing, ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Every yield curve "situation" has a series of people explaining why the yield curve doesn't matter this time, or arguing over which specific yield curve to care about. See thread and charts below.

Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation ...

There is much talk these days about the yield curve, and what its shape can tell us about the future of markets. I will not review the analytics of the curve because it is exhaustively covered in the ...

NEW YORK (AP) — One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession started blinking again. The “yield curve” is watched for clues on how the bond market feels about the long-term ...

An inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been seen as a recession warning sign for decades, and it looks like it’s about to light up again. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains why an ...

Earlier this year I wrote the article, “Does An Inverted Yield Curve Mean I Should Get Out Of The Markets?” in which I made these important points: Any indicator which can be manipulated by the ...