Children had to choose one of two urns—each comprising beads of winning and losing colours—from which to draw a winning bead. Three experiments, aimed at diagnosing rules of choice and designed ...

The word 'probability' in ordinary language has two different senses, here called "inductive" and "physical" probability. This paper examines the concept of inductive probability. Attempts to express ...

Life rarely hands us neat examples, though. Events mix, overlap, depend on past outcomes and human behaviour. That’s where ...

This course builds a rigorous foundation of probability. Topics covered include: basic concepts of probability theory and statistics, counting, axioms of probability, independence, Bayes rule, ...

THE concept of probability has always comprised two ideas: that of frequency in an ensemble and that of reasonable expectation. Suppose it is said that in tossing an unbiased coin the probabilities of ...

To many, the concept of probability feels intuitive. We're used to thinking about the odds of everything from coin flips to election results. Probability has become so integral to everyday life, it's ...

Introduction to probability theory and its applications. Axioms of probability, distributions, discrete and continuous random variables, conditional and joint distributions, correlation, limit laws, ...