Given a few assumptions, the probability of a conjunction is raised, and the probability of its negation is lowered, by conditionalising upon one of the conjuncts. This simple result appears to bring ...

It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

Jurors often must have an understanding of Bayesian reasoning to interpret DNA forensic evidence. Previous studies have suggested that representing probabilistic information in natural frequency ...

An international team of physicists has extended Bayes’ rule into the quantum realm, potentially transforming how we handle uncertainty in quantum computing and machine learning. The study is ...

WE ARE in a bar, and agree to toss a coin for the next round. Heads, I pay; tails, the drinks are on you. What are your chances of a free pint? Most people – sober ones, at least – would agree: ...